Changes in German Security Policy and National Idea, and Contributions for the International Democratic Order Based on Military Dispatch Policy

After the euro crisis, researchers have addressed a “German problem”, i.e., whether Germany is seeking hegemony in Europe and developing classical power politics. At that time, researchers have considered what kind of power Germany is and what (leadership) role Germany should play in the future. Discussions have characterized Germany as a “reluctant Hegemon”. Szabo insisted that Germany is a geo-economic power. Maull argued that German foreign policy since the Merkel III government is a “civilian power 2.0”. Moreover, Paterson argued that Germany has taken a leadership role in rule setting since the euro crisis and that the country lost its consciousness to assist the EU and avoid leadership status. Furthermore, Aggestam and Hyde-Price insisted that Germany is strengthening its leadership role in the CSDP (EU Common security and defence policy). Most noteworthy here is that researchers have referred to the orientation and (leadership) role that German foreign and security policy should seek and the evaluation of its current situation from the perspective of Leitbild (guiding view). Researchers have described Germany as either a ‘normal great power’ or a ‘civilian power.’ However, while supporters insist that there has been continuity in German foreign policy, German foreign policy has experienced a transformation at the idea level. In addition, researchers have encountered difficulty clearly analysing the differences between the normal great power and civilian power models. Using a discourse analysis of parliamentary debates, the author overcomes both of these problems in previous studies. Furthermore, we can better understand the transformation of German Leitbild by considering the transformation of the party system. In the presentation, the speaker clarifies the results based on policy analysis and discourse analysis. The objects for analysis are policy decisions, party system and parliamentary debates from 1994 until today. Germany transformed to a ‘peace restoration power with a power orientation’ with a hybrid-type Leitbild in which the peculiarities of civilian and normal great power models coexist and fuse. Germany contributes for international democratic order through peace restoration operations. The transformation of Germany’s Leitbild can be explained by the ideological transformations of the two large parties, CDU/CSU and SPD, toward the centre, by the change in the German party system, and by the normalization of the grand coalition as the coalition type at the federal level. As seen in the German case, the party system in one nation influences Leitbild. Germany seems to reinforce its military responsibilities under the EU after Brexit to compensate for withdrawal of the UK. The result of the 2017 federal election clarified that the German party system is about to transform into a multiparty system. If the two large parties no longer secured 30% of the votes and the Greens and others were to increase their power, a multiparty system would occur where five or six middle parties exist. Germany might acquire a “hydra-type” Leitbild where few peculiarities can acquire a majority in society. In that case, German foreign and security policies with no clear profiles would lose their creativity, and their hollowing out would deepen.