Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic on China’s Belt and Road Initiative

The paper examines the short- and long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Belt and Road Initiative. The temporary shutdown of economies around the world has disrupted global supply chains, which causes major delays of BRI infrastructure projects and increases the costs. For the time being China and BRI partner countries will divert attention and resources to fighting the spread of the virus and providing relief for their economies. Thus, a serious blowback for the BRI is inevitable. However, the long-term consequences are still uncertain at this point and will depend to a large degree on how long Corona will set back the world economy. China seems determined to carry on with the BRI no matter what, but the question arises if China’s economy will recover quickly enough and if Beijing has the financial reserves to keep up the high level of commitment and support for the BRI. If China manages to sustain the BRI throughout the pandemic, Corona can open up opportunities to use “mask diplomacy” and BRI healthcare infrastructure projects to increase Beijing’s global standing and the local acceptance for the BRI. Given the changed circumstances, BRI countries are well advised to review their participation in the BRI in due consideration of the short-term and possible long-term effects and consider if they can still afford the infrastructure projects even if they take longer to finish, are more expensive and generate smaller economic impact.