If Migrants Chose Governments: A Comparative Analysis of Central Eastern European Diaspora Votes

Different societies seem to hold quite different ideas about the political influence of their diasporas – exilic communities maintaining a shared identity and a link to the sending country. In some societies, like Romania, migrants are most often perceived as a pro-Europeanization force, while elsewhere (e.g. Poland) many exilic communities are seen as “long-distance nationalists”, with a tendency to support the far right without the need to actually live under a far-right government. Within the EU, the question of diaspora voting acquires additional depth. Following the Eastern Enlargements of 2004 and 2007, the idea that migration to consolidated democracies will generate “democratic remittances” was quite popular, but if migrants lean towards the nationalist and populist right, we might instead expect “illiberal remittances” and have to analyze the political dynamics of diasporas as an element of the broader democratic backsliding in the region. Despite the fact that the electoral behaviour of EU-diasporas is a highly salient issue from the perspective of European political dynamics, it remains a neglected topic of study. Migration studies tend to focus on the politics of migration in terms of political integration in the host country. If voting patterns are analysed, it is most often in host country elections. We treat national (i.e. sending country) elections as both an important indicator of diaspora political preferences and mobilization, and as the most direct way in which emigrants can influence politics back home. This paper presents a systematic assessment of CEE migrant voting behaviour. We gather data on the most recent parliamentary and presidential elections in 9 CEE countries, tracing how migrants in 15 Western European countries voted. We then compare this to the results of the election in the sending country, and show the ‘distance’ of each exilic community from the home country result along different composite axis - left-right, GAL-TAN etc. - and also with respect to specific important policy issues. This paper is based on ongoing research, so we cannot as yet provide a summary of conclusions.