Hydrogen as a low-carbon energy transition pathway: (Un)usual actor coalitions in Germany

Low-carbon energy transitions enter into a new phase which is characterised by the need to integrate higher shares of renewable electricity into the grid and to decarbonise long-distance transport and a variety of industries such as steel. Hydrogen represents an intensively debated solution as it allows storage and transport of energy and offers a wide variety of applications in different sectors. The European Union as well as different member states and regions have proposed public policy programs and strategies to support the development of new technologies and applications around hydrogen. There is a new policy field emerging with a broad range of actors (firms, industry associations, NGOs, think tanks) and policy issues. We also see the beginning formation of actor coalitions with shared views on some of these issues. From a policy perspective, it is interesting to trace these early developments to understand the implications for the emerging hydrogen transition pathway. In particular, we are interested in who the key actors are, which coalitions and (un)usual alliances emerge, and what the key topics and potential conflict lines are. Our study analyses the beliefs of different actor coalitions in Germany. Its ambitious policy goals and EUR 9 bn of public investments for hydrogen until 2026 make Germany an interesting and relevant case. The advocacy coalition framework identifies coalitions through shared policy core beliefs. We define these for the policy subsystem evolving around hydrogen and link them to the field of transition research. Methodologically, we apply a mixed-methods approach. The data used for this analysis is based on position papers referring to the national hydrogen strategy. We code the data with QDA software and analyse it through qualitative content analysis. In order to identify different advocacy coalitions, we apply a cluster analysis and visualise the results through multidimensional scaling. Our first findings are as follows. Overall, hydrogen appears to be a topic with a high degree of support and consensus from a broad variety of stakeholders. This is a bit of a surprise as previous energy transition policy issues in Germany were highly conflictive. However, a closer analysis reveals emerging lines of conflict. Even though many actors wish to increase the use of hydrogen, they do not necessarily agree on its production (e.g. whether it is produced from renewable or non-renewable energies), its priority applications, infrastructure (investments), or international trade and ex-/imports. These lines of conflict bear consequences for the further transition process as – should they increase – dissent and a more fragile basis for the hydrogen transition pathway could be the result. Otherwise, hydrogen also has the potential to become a ‘consensus builder’ that mends earlier conflict lines, bridges diverging interests (beliefs), and allows to accelerate the low-carbon energy transition. Our paper contributes to the panel by not only mapping the actors and identifying coalitions in a new field but also by identifying key topics and lines of conflict. This helps us to better understand the emerging hydrogen economy.