The Influence of the AfD on the positions and framing of the CDU, CSU and SPD on the question of Europe

In 2013, the German party system witnessed the rise of a new Eurosceptic challenger, the Alternative for Germany which represents a significant shake up of Germany’s pro-European consensus. Spatial models of party competition predict that mainstream parties are likely to react to Eurosceptic challenges through an accommodative or adversarial stance. The attitudes of the German public towards the European Union (EU) have been characterised by either somewhat favourable or somewhat unfavourable positions. Very favourable attitudes towards German membership are comparably low. Thus, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Christian Social Union (CSU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) have incentives to move where voters position themselves, in other words become more critical of the EU. The literature establishes a strong link between the rise of Eurosceptic challenges and the convergence of mainstream parties towards such positions. Key thinkers have suggested that the CDU/CSU and SPD have adopted an adversarial response to the AfD in terms of European integration. However, more research has been conducted on the AfD’s impact on the mainstream’s immigration policy. As a result, this paper will examine the influence of the AfD on the question of Europe by employing a process tracing mechanism to establish the influence on the CDU, CSU and SPD. Over the period 2013 to September 2019, the paper argues that the AfD’s influence has developed through a series of positive feedback loops. 2016 is the main turning point when unfavourable opinions of the EU were at their highest, coverage of the AfD had increased, pro-EU movements were created and the AfD were increasingly moving towards a broader anti-EU position. The AfD’s influence is not limited to position change of the CDU, CSU and SPD, but also includes the framing that the CDU, CSU and SPD to justify their position on the question of Europe. The analysis draws on a wide variety of material including manifestos, media coverage, public opinion and parliamentary debates to show that the CDU and CSU when running on a joint election campaign reacted with an adversarial response by emphasising their pro-EU position. However, the way their pro-EU policy was justified has changed and become conditional. For example, they continue to support the Economic Monetary Fund as long as it does not impinge on German sovereignty or support for enlargement, but emphasising that the opening of accession talks does not mean accession. The CSU in their 2014 European manifesto adopted the positions of the AfD, but moderated when it re-joined forces with the CDU. Whilst the SPD also adopted an adversarial response, its justifications became more pro-EU. That being said, the coalition with the CDU/CSU did moderate its positions, for example in terms of a European economic government. As a result, the findings have implications for the understanding of the theory of party competition and far right party impact, as well as how the question of Europe features in domestic party politics.