Covid - Catalyst or Inhibitor of Ukraine's "Dream of Europe"?

Just seven years after the “Revolution of Dignity” and the associated hope for a “Europeanization” of the political and economic sphere, Ukraine is facing another severe crisis that might impact its political and economic development path. This paper aims at establishing the impact that the Covid pandemic has on the outlook for democratization and Europeanization in Ukraine. The case being made is highly relevant as it represents a crucial variable of a well-known democratization theory in a very specific yet important context. To understand the outstanding relevance of economic shocks in this context it is important to acknowledge a main demand of the protesters: overcoming the low-access order system (LAO) that is centrally characterized by corruption and a close collusion of politics and economics. In the Ukrainian case, this system was reminiscent of a typical instance of “state capture”, whereas political institutions are merely a channel for the execution of the ruling elite’s oligarchic interests, compromising any democratic claim that such a system might have. Democratizing in that context means at its core to overcome the oligarchic system. However, it is particularly the political system that allows for this oligarchic state capture to function. The influential idea of “path-dependent change” sees democracy being determined by internal dynamics, whilst then determining further economic institutions. Correspondingly, one can derive that a political system can only heal itself and endogeneity is a natural aspect. Yet, exogenous shocks, also known as critical junctures, can exhibit an important impact under certain conditions and have effects that the system would not have brought about itself. This effect can either be positive or negative and this work’s primary aim is to establish the qualitative direction and magnitude of change of Covid in the short and long run. For this, a two-stage research design will be used. First, the development of internal, political dynamics before and during the Covid pandemic will be assessed. Could the government, potentially under the pressure of oligarchic business groups, withdraw certain pieces of legislations, amend others, or introduce beneficial solutions for these agents due to the pandemic? Or was it the entirely opposite way, and the crisis sparked stronger determination to introduce legislation against these businesses as they became reliant on government aid to survive? Second, external assistance will be evaluated. Here, particularly the EU and other international organisations play a crucial role. E.g., it has been argued that without the pressure from its key partners and supporters, Ukrainian policy makers would have not instituted the High Anti-Corruption Court in its current form. Hence, exogenous forces might have a crucial importance to play in overcoming an LAO in a particular country. As a result of Covid, these external partners might have to deal with their own problems or actually have even more leverage over Kyiv to push its policy makers to conduct far-stretching reforms. Taken both aspects together, this paper will provide crucial insights into democratization processes in an LAO and the impact of crises on internal and external key processes affecting them.