It is critical to hit a critical mass – Reaping positive spillover effects of the energy transition in the Global South

It is often discussed that the low-carbon energy transition in the Global South faces different challenges and opportunities than the Global North. The discussion often highlights Leapfrogging, reaching Sustainable Development Goals (e.g. affordable energy or the positive externalities on health and well-being), or fostering democracy as positive spillover effects. Thus investing in renewable energies often has a positive connotation. Yet, the relationship between investments into renewable energies and the achievement of the benefits is not linear since not every dollar invested leads to an increase in the respective goals. This paper argues that to reap these spillover effects of the energy transition certain tipping points need to be reached. These tipping points can be located e.g. in the geographic distribution of renewable energies, the amount invested, the concentration of investments across renewable energy projects, the percentage of a population with access to energy or the amount of energy generated in relation to energy consumption. We use panel data to disentangle these effects and to identify the tipping points in the energy transition of the Global South. Combining the panel data analysis with expert interviews we are able to identify regional differences, thus providing the opportunity for a more targeted policy design.