Digital authoritarianism in Middle Range Powers: Turkish AI-powered drone warfare and its regional authoritarian strategies

The literature on the politics of Artificial Intelligence (AI) heavily focuses on the great powers, particularly on China and its digital authoritarianism and the military AI applications. Yet, there is not much on the middle-range powers and how they benefit from the diffusion of AI technologies. We explore how the adoption/development of AI-powered military tech shapes the regional strategies of middle-range powers. The paper focuses primarily on Turkey, which is a critical case because of its demonstrated middle-power activism and the increasingly authoritarian practices challenging liberal democratic values at home. Turkish Government has invested heavily on the development of AI-powered drone warfare, which has raised the international profile of the country’s bourgeoning defense sector. We define three casual pathways from AI to middle-power activism and authoritarianism. First, AI tech has allowed the Turkish government to effectively interfere in regional conflicts such as in Libya, Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh in a capacity beyond the conventional warfare capabilities. This newfound military effectiveness has promoted Turkey’s regional actorness. Second, AI technology transfer and arms sales enabled Turkey to position itself as an alternative source of military tech in its region. The sales of battle-tested Turkish drones helped forge and consolidate informal regional alliances among the authoritarian regimes in its neighborhood (including Hungary, Poland, Serbia) and alternative fora for cooperation in defence. Finally, the AI-powered national military tech boosts the legitimacy for the authoritarian regime at home. The apparent success of the Turkish drones in affecting the outcome of regional conflicts, as broadcast in the government-controlled media channels as well as social media, produces regime-boosting effects.