The Impact of Systemic and National Variables on the Substance of the European Strategic Autonomy

The European Strategic Autonomy concept became a buzzword in 2016 after the European Union released “A Global Strategy for the European Union’s Foreign and Security Policy” instantly after the BREXIT. The increasing international uncertainty, changing relations with the United States of America, and new security challenges put ESA at the front of the EU agenda. As a result, European Strategic Autonomy became extremely topical among EU policymakers, politicians, think-tankers, and the academic community, gaining proponents and opponents at the same time. Unfortunately, the growing intensity of discussions on European Strategic Autonomy contributed little to its precision. The archaeology of the concept suggests that the European Strategic Autonomy’s origins can be traced back to the first initiatives of Western European countries to cooperate in defense policies after World War II. Since then, the concept deepened and expanded at varying rates and success because it was heavily affected by two main variables: the systemic processes and positions of member states of European Communities and, later European Union. Considering the two mentioned variables, the analysis of the evolution of the concept allows defining how precisely those independent variables impacted the development of European Strategic Autonomy and its substance. Furthermore, it also indicates what can be expected from European Strategic Autonomy, assuming that the future can be extrapolated from historical patterns and examples.