Populism and Direct Democracy - What Affects Citizens' Support for Direct Democratic Policy Proposals?

Why do people reject or support certain direct-democratic policy proposals? Previous research suggests that approval of political referendums arises because of proximity to policy positions. However, most studies do not take into account that political referendums are embedded in a complex process and different public opinions can influence approval or rejection as potential factors. In this study, we argue that, in addition to positional proximity to a referendum’s policy, approval or disapproval are influenced by party cues, expert cues, and cues on popular support. We expect that people are more likely to support a referendum if they are told that their party supports the project or that an non-favored party opposes the project. Furthermore, we expect the effect of expert cues and cues on popular support to differ between populist and non-populist citizens. Since populist citizens are more likely to be critical of science and supportive of enforcing the majority will, we expect them to be more likely to support a referendum if experts oppose the project and the public supports it. To test these assumptions, we conduct a conjoint experiment embedded in a novel survey. In addition to respondents' policy positions, party identification, and attitudes toward direct democracy, we measure individuals' populist attitudes. In the conjoint experiment, we randomize the policy proposal, the support and rejection of the proposal by political parties, the expert assessment of the proposal, and the public’s support for the proposal. This study thus provides new insights into the causal mechanisms of the approval and rejection of direct democratic policy proposals.