Does ideology matter? Leadership in the international scenario.

What are the effects of ideology on the speeches delivered at the United Nations? Previous research has already demonstrated that countries’ attitudes vary in accordance with the ideology of governments (Kreppel & Tsebelis, 1999; Hooghe, Marks e Wilson, 2002; Onuki e Oliveira, 2006; Potrafke, 2009). This happens because there is a relationship among domestic pressures, preferences, and international behaviour (Putnam, 1988; Hermann, 1990). However, the boundaries between left and right in international issues are flexible and changeable. Since the end of the Cold War, several organizations were raised and reformed as result of the new interaction nets among the States and the multiplicity of the international agendas. In this conjuncture, named as complex interdependence by Keohane and Nye (1977), the role of ideas has gained more and more space in the States’ strategies of international projection. Thus, the main purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the speeches of G-20 leaders, with different ideological positions, are centered in alliances already established with traditional powers or if seeks a diversification of their partners. The choice of G-20 members is underpinned in the fact that they are the better representatives of different levels of power States (great, middle, and new powers) (Giley & O’Neil, 2014). It is assumed that the more countries and organizations are quoted in the speeches the greater the government’s intention to raise its State to an international leadership position. Through a Dictionary Analysis it will be possible to notice trends in manifest contents throughout the cases, between 2000 and 2020, and understand if the interests declared by left and right governments are, or not, divergent in terms of their projection as an international leader. The main hypothesis is that left governments tend to seek leadership roles, while right ones tend to follow traditional great powers such as the United States, China, Russia, Japan or some European countries.