Determinants of polarization: Brazil in comparative perspective with Latin America

Political polarization has become a growing problem in democracies recently, fomenting a boost in the production of research on the subject. In its most elementary version, the concept of polarization refers to the ideological dispersion which divides society into two antagonistic blocs, culminating in the collapse of a political center. The profusion of the “us against them” discourse is frequently described as its decisive feature. Indeed, it is a complex phenomenon whose manifestation can occur at different levels: a) only among political elites; b) on a social scale; or c) in both spheres simultaneously. It is worth noting that this study focuses on the former level of analysis. In the literature, the most influential theory on the phenomenon of political and social polarization contends that its roots are related to the deepening of economic inequality in democracies. This postulate, however, contrasts with the path witnessed in Latin America, where many countries have shown increasing polarization in the past decade, while there was economic redistribution, rather than an increase in inequality. For this reason, this study seeks to test an alternative hypothesis according to which it is not inequality that has promoted polarization in Latin America but redistribution. In order to test it, I will follow a mix method approach, thereby combining quantitative analysis and process tracing. First, I intend to conduct a cross-sectional time series analysis (TSCS) to investigate the general correlations with polarization, which is measured based on the index provided by the V-Dem project. The analysis uses data from 15 countries – Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Mexico, Panama, Honduras, Peru, Paraguay, and Uruguay – from 1993 to 2020. The predictor is the absolute redistribution, measured by the difference between Gini post and pre-transfers. As controls, I will use some variables pointed out throughout the literature, such as the degree of internet access, economic crisis and inequality. Second, I conduct a process-tracing analysis on Brazil. A preliminary review of the literature reveals that among the analyses of Latin American cases, there is a notable focus on the study of Venezuela. I set a case study of Brazil, which can be classified as a typical case . This country is especially representative of the hypothesis since the popularization deepened after a period of reduction of inequality. In sum, the aim is to cross evidence found through large-N analysis with the process-tracing analysis on Brazil.