The Politics of Uncertainty’ in Practice: The Belarusian 2020 Presidential Election

Elections in Belarus used to be followed by an atmosphere of resigned acceptance no matter how dishonest they were. The 2020 Presidential Election was different as formerly apolitical residents actively participated en masse throughout the whole electoral process, openly expressing their desire for change and support for Tsikhanouskaya. The electoral process, almost magically, turned from meaningless into meaningful. This paper argues this development clearly illustrates what Schedler has referred to as the ’politics of uncertainty’ in an electoral authoritarian regime can look like in practice, and their consequences. This theoretical point of departure gives at hand, first, that the Belarusian regime was haunted by institutional and informational uncertainty which made it vulnerable as it was impossible to gauge the level of genuine support among the population in any credible way. Second, until 2020 the regime had successfully neutralized any insecurity stemming from the election itself, but this time they failed, and the electoral situation opened the window of opportunity for latent threats to authoritarian legitimacy to surface and become the backbone of anti-regime mobilization largely triggered by Tsikhanouskaya’s campaign. Finally, this probably would not have happened at this time without the COVID-19 pandemic. The perceived lack of governmental response to the crisis intensified the impact of the inherent and electoral uncertainty to the extent the situation resulted in an astonishing mass mobilization and re-politicization of society. Looking forward, it brings up the question to what extent this altered the fundamental dynamics and power relations between the regime and society in general, and in regards to future electoral processes in particular.