Democratic vs authoritarian resilience: the case of Belarus

Abstract

Belarusian civil society and its democratic opposition have been challenging the authoritarian regime in the country for many years. The peak of this contestation occurred during the presidential election in 2020, when Belarusians rose up in their hundreds of thousands to collectively reject electoral fraud, displaying high levels of public mobilization and discontent, and actively engaging with social media as a tool of popular protest. Lukashenka’s authoritarian government responded with a wave of unprecedented violence, drawing not just on a toolkit effectively deployed in the past (e.g. targeted physical violence, the arrest of opposition leaders, wide-spread state propaganda), but also adding new forms of repression - e.g. post-election internet lockdowns, digital harassment of political activists, and mass criminal prosecution even in the case of minor protest activities. These later also included a full state crackdown on independent media and a purge of civil society, forcing millions of Belarusians into exile. Almost three years on, the authoritarian regime in Belarus remains in power, using its repressive practices in an effort to maintain a semblance of control over a subdued society. This could be seen as a case of regime resilience, traditionally understood as a form of survival and adaptation. Contrary to this, civil society, by and large exiled by the state, has seemingly lost its strength and appeal to the remaining activists within the country. This has led some scholars to conclude that the regime has won to the detriment of a civil society whose resilience is waning. This panel challenges this view by unpacking the meaning of resilience as a concept and practice. It will argue that if resilience were to be understood as self-organisation and self-help(Korosteleva & Petrova 2021), it would offer a more plausible explanation as to why ‘the Revolution of Indignation’ in Belarus (Kudlenko 2023) could be claimed as victorious and even irreversible, drawing on hidden but unstoppable processes of change within the society - be it domestic or in exile. On the contrary, the regime’s resilience is illusory and finite as it is dependent on the exhaustive capabilities of Lukashenka’s machinery of repression, the practice of mutual responsibility, and material support from Russia. The panel involves interdisciplinary scholars using first-hand evidence to offer a more nuanced understanding of both resilience and democratic change in a country hitherto seen as a stronghold of resilient authoritarianism.

Title	Details
Understanding resilience in theory and practice: what have the 2020 protests in Belarus showed us, anew?	View Paper Details
The Politics of Uncertainty’ in Practice: The Belarusian 2020 Presidential Election	View Paper Details
Civil Society, Social Movements and Protest Mobilization in Belarus after 2020	View Paper Details
Can pro-government rallies actually weaken autocrats? Survey evidence from Belarus and Russia	View Paper Details
Was Telegram a key mediator in Belarusian protest? Perspectives from the inside	View Paper Details