The Effects of First- and Second-generation Immigrant-origin Voters’ Migration Experience on Political Attitudes and Activity: Evidence from a Longitudinal Election Campaign Survey

In this contribution I examine the effects of the political and economic situation in sending countries of immigrant-origin voters on their political attitudes and activity in the host society. Many studies that explain political attitudes and behaviour of migrants are also interested in their respective origin. However, it is often difficult to trace the migration history of migrants and model it accordingly using quantitative survey data sets. The political conditions under which immigrant-origin voters grew up and were politically socialized likely continue to influence their political attitudes and behaviours after they migrate to a new country. And even if most of the socialization has happened in the host country, their origins can catch up with them: for example, through events that arouse transnational political interest or through the past of their own parents, who act as political socialization agents. I use data from the longitudinal Immigrant German Election Study II survey, which tracks the development of political attitudes and behaviours over the course of an election campaign in Duisburg, a Western German metropolis. Political and economic conditions in the countries of origin are modelled using data from the World Bank, the Polity5 database and other contextual data on events of war and civil conflict. Preliminary results show that the experience of war and violent civil conflict in immigrant-origin voters and even their parents increase political activity, even if this experience happened a long time ago. Political trust is an important moderating variable on that explanatory path. The political system (party system, voting rights) migrants were socialized in, has almost no influence on political activity throughout the whole course of an election campaign. On the other hand, economic indicators (inequality measures, gross domestic product per capita) have no effects at all. The effects of migration experience are therefore mainly in the political socialization mediated by socialization agents and country-level characteristics.