Energy Transitions in Europe – Path stability or readjustment in times of crisis?

Latest with the war in Ukraine, energy policy, which is a hot topic in European politics anyway, moved to the center of political debates. It became clear that switching from energy systems based on fossil fuels is not only related to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating climate change, but equally to energy security, energy affordability, and foreign policy strategies. However, national energy systems in Europe are very heterogeneous, as structural conditions like geographic circumstances, economic traditions, and critical policy decisions create distinct path-dependencies, that also shape current national and European energy policy discourses and transition pathways. To outline the distinct national pathways in a European context, we are examining data on the development of the European energy system and draw on examples from individual countries. We first assess the long-term evolution of Europe's energy mixes and then continue with a closer look at the developments of the main energy source for decarbonization, renewable energy. To assess the overall results of the energy transition in Europe, we develop a scoring system that takes into account both transition pathways and greenhouse gas reductions. This scoring system is then applied to the EU-27 and the UK to compare the results of the different countries and to take stock of the development from 2000 to 2019. This comparative analysis reveals clusters of Member States with similar transition configurations. But since 2020, energy policy in Europe is faced with additional challenges like increasing ambitions to reach climate neutrality by 2050 and external shocks like the corona pandemic and the energy crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This raises the question, if the identified transition configurations also determine crisis reaction. Have Member States with the same transition configurations similar approaches to govern challenges and crisis? With this question we will investigate if path stability prevails or if readjustments and shifts in energy transition paths can be identified under the new circumstances shaping energy policy in Europe since 2020.