De Facto Independent States in the Post-Soviet Territory

Though frozen conflicts are often not considered as potentially dangerous, they are very much like chronic illnesses with outbursts of violence occurring unpredictably. Therefore, their “frozenness” does not necessarily make them less harmful or less costly for the states and their population. At the moment, several frozen conflicts are being experienced in the territories of the former Soviet Union. Some of these conflicts resulted in the creation of de facto independent states, two of which are Transnistria (also known as Pridnestrovie) which is located between Moldova and Ukraine; and South Ossetia which is on the Russian-Georgian border. These disputed states are strategically important for contesting global powers and they have not only political, but also economic importance for several actors. Transnistria is a central point of political and economic contestation for regional power between Russia, the EU and the US. While Russia behaves as the patron of the situation trying to defend Transnistrian interests, the US behaves in a more reserved manner. This is caused to a certain extent by the fact that Transnistria is not the first priority in its foreign policy agenda. At the same time, the EU is also quite reluctant in its responses because a possible power contestation with Russia would be too costly for it at the present stage. In addition, Transnistria is a strategic economic knot for some ethnically Russian business elites, who operate some lucrative businesses there, which are mostly related to heavy industry. South Ossetia is situated at a more strategic crossroad of international interests. The political situation in Georgia is of great importance to both Russia and the US, who have long been competing for dominance in the Caucasus region. The direction towards which Georgia is heading is also critical for the EU’s economic security and regional hegemonic aspirations. The EU’s Eastern enlargement project fueled the disputes over Transnistria and South Ossetia, since the conflicts have now moved closer to the EU borders and they now pose a remarkable challenge to the EU’s foreign policy and its role as an international mediator. Though some attempts to understand the underlying reasons behind these conflicts and most importantly behind their frozen nature have been done, the academic and policy research significantly diverges in opinions and approaches towards the possible solutions for these conflicts. In this research paper, I intend to compare the frozen conflicts in these countries to understand the current developments, what roles different factors and actors play in these conflicts and how these frozen disputes can be brought towards peaceful solutions.