Citizen by choice? The effect of context on political socialisation of Syrian refugees in Baden-Württemberg and Brandenburg

This paper examines the effect of allocation and relocation on political socialisation of Syrian refugees in Germany. Using random allocation to the 16 Federal States (Länder) by the Königstein Key, we use propensity score matching to reduce confounding biases and test for the effect of allocation. We test the null hypothesis that geographical allocation of refugees to different states does not affect their political socialisation, and investigate the role of local context of the two federal states. Using a stratified sample of 586 Syrian refugees, results show variations in political socialisation scores between the two states (Baden-Württemberg and Brandenburg) and between allocated and relocated refugees. The specialised model by location produced a higher explanatory power in Baden-Württemberg, highlighting the importance of choice of location over the quality or GDP of the location itself. Demographic variables presented a divide between Baden-Württemberg and Brandenburg as younger refugees tend to relocate in search of higher educational opportunities, which in turn reflected to a higher level of German competence in Baden-Württemberg than in Brandenburg. Political variables presented a better explanation about the incentives of refugees to become politically socialised in relation to the local political context in their state. The Königstein allocation led to a high rate of secondary movement, indicating that random allocation did not fully account for the preferences of refugees. Geographical variables such as “duration of stay” were more important in Baden-Württemberg, while the “purpose of stay” was more important in Brandenburg. The most significant discrepancy in variable effect was related to demographic indicators, with German language level being important for political socialisation in both allocated and relocated refugees, and education level showing little correlation. Our findings reject the null hypothesis that allocation of refugees to different states does not affect their political socialisation. Instead, we find that the age, choice of location, purpose of stay, and German language proficiency are key factors in shaping the political attitudes of refugees. Our study contributes to the understanding of the factors that influence political socialisation and lays ground for repeated surveys to test for changes after naturalisation.