Changing Sexual and Gender Identities in the US During the COVID-19 Pandemic

There have been indications of heightened levels of coming out as LGBTQ+ in the COVID-19 pandemic, as shown in a survey done by the dating app Bumble and in other journalistic accounts. This trend has thought to have arisen due to increased social isolation, which can result in increased space for introspection and a lack of daily gendered/sexualized interactions that reinforce cisheteronormativity. In the following paper, I use four data sources to attempt to isolate the causal effect of COVID-19 lockdowns in the US (as a proxy for increased social isolation) on open disclosure of new LGBTQ+ identities. I use government data on county- and state-level stay-at-home orders as my independent variable, and I evaluate within-county changes to LGBTQ+ disclosure before 2020 an after 2022 using the National Health Interviews Study (NHIS) and General Social Survey (GSS). I have confirmatory analysis that directly asks individuals retrospectively about their changes in gender identity and sexual orientation using a single cross-section from COVID States data. Using all four data sets, I am able to distinguish between the increase in non-straight and non-cis disclosure that was associated with increased lockdown times, in comparison to the secular increase we might have anticipated had lockdowns not taken place. This paper adds to the literature on queer and gender theories on interactionalism (e.g., “doing” gender—or not, as in social isolation—in daily life) and political demography. I attempt to show how local and statewide policy impacts the trends in open disclosure of marginalized identities in the US.