Decoding short-term fertility intentions: exploring the nexus of gender equality and societal factors in comparative gender regimes EU analysis

Low fertility in many EU countries has become a priority issue on national and supra-national policy agendas. Analysing this phenomenon requires considering the divergent developments in gender equality that have taken place in different countries, which have given rise to new gender relations and attitudes and new family patterns. The proposal critically examines factors influencing short-term fertility intentions in three European Union (EU) countries, specifically focusing on their association with gender equality. Including diverse countries—representing Scandinavian, continental, and Mediterranean gender regimes—facilitates a comparative analysis. Leveraging data from the second wave of the Generations and Gender Programme (2018-2021) and the 2018 fertility survey by the Spanish National Institute of Statistics, we assess short-term fertility intentions among individuals with partners, distinguishing between men and women. The comprehensive explanatory model encompasses variables about the labour market, available resources, the division of caregiving responsibilities, and gender and family-related values and attitudes. This proposal contributes to the evolving research landscape on contemporary fertility patterns in the EU. It seeks to correlate observed differences and similarities in explanatory models with established theories on gender regimes.