Electoral Fortunes of Populism: A Comparative Analysis of Causes and Trends in Western Europe (2000-2022)

This paper employs a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to discern the conditions determining the electoral successes or failures of populist parties. Examining a dataset of 72 cases from 2000 to 2022, it investigates the causes for vote share changes among radical right, radical left, and valence populist parties in Western Europe at national elections. Contemporary examples such as the surge of the Fratelli di Italia, the decline of Syriza in Greece, the volatile results of the Austrian Freedom Party or the evolving success of La France Insoumise underline the dynamic nature of populist trajectories. The contribution of this study is twofold: Firstly, while much of the contemporary political science discourse has revolved around the rise of populism, this research also delves into instances where populist parties falter electorally. This perspective is especially relevant since democratic backsliding is more often associated with populist government. Secondly, the analysis combines causal hypotheses from diverse research traditions, emphasizing economic, cultural, and notably, deficits of democratic representation as underlying conditions associated with populism. By adopting an equifinal approach, this paper endeavors to provide a nuanced comprehension of the recent history of populism in Western Europe. By emphasizing explanatory factors embedded within the very practice of current democracy itself, this study illuminates an area that has been previously understudied. This focus challenges existing frameworks and encourages further avenues for exploration in the broader context of studies about populism.