The International Diffusion of Democratic Backsliding

This paper examines the diffusion of democratic backsliding across national borders. Studies of democratic backsliding focus overwhelmingly on domestic-level explanations. However, two observations imply an important international dimension of democratic backsliding: First, backsliding countries form clusters. Second, leaders of backsliding countries seek to cooperate with leaders from other backsliding countries. Scholars studying international diffusion of political regimes have highlighted the diffusion democracy and autocracy, but have yet to consider the diffusion of democratic backsliding. I argue that a window of opportunity opens for domestic agents of democratic backsliding when precedent of backsliding occurs abroad. Observing backsliding in other democratic countries renders the subversion of democratic institutions a feasible alternative, generating opportunistic support from anti-democratic segments of society. Because the narrative is short-lived, diffusion effects will be short term rather than long-term, accounting for temporal clusters of backsliding countries. The aspects of opportunity and timing add to the theory of diffusion, in which learning and emulation are considered key mechanisms. I test the proposition using spatial lag models and an original measure of democratic backsliding and the diffusion of backsliding, based on data from the Varieties of Democracy project. Spatial lag models are apt to capture the complex dynamics of diffusion across time and space and are frequently employed to model diffusion processes.