Contours of EU Engagement: Navigating Autocratisation in Post-Arab Spring Southern Neighbourhood

Following the Arab uprisings of 2011, Egypt and Tunisia witnessed significant transformations in their political landscape, which have had diverging impacts on their relations with the European Union (EU) and the broader regional landscape. Today, both countries are experiencing authoritarian deepening marked by increased repression and control over their populations, alongside mounting economic worries and discontent with socio-economic circumstances. The EU’s engagement, within this context, has been multifaceted, encompassing diplomatic dialogues, aid packages, and attempts to navigate the fragile balance between supporting democratic transitions and maintaining stability in the region. Forming an integral facet of the EU's foreign policy strategy, the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) has aimed to mitigate risks that might undermine Europe's internal economic and political stability. Since its establishment in 2004, the ENP has undergone revisions in response to pivotal events like the Arab uprisings, prompting a shift towards a more foreign policy-oriented framework. This evolution, complementing bilateral arrangements such as the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EUROMED) and, subsequently, the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) (Costello, 2020), has faced criticism. The ENP's underlying rationale has been questioned amid doubts about its efficacy in driving meaningful transformation, particularly in the South Mediterranean region (Ghazaryan, 2016). This paper examines the intricate dynamics between Egypt, Tunisia, and the EU, focusing on the complexities surrounding regime stability and the promotion of democracy. Drawing on extensive fieldwork conducted between 2018 to 2023, engaging actors within civil society, this study unravels the ambiguities within these relationships. Rooted in ethnographic observations, it unveils the nuanced contextual intricacies shaping these interactions. By delving deeply into these regions, the research offers a comprehensive understanding of the complex balance between stability and democratic aspirations/promotion, providing critical insights into the challenges and potentials for fostering the EU agenda within these geopolitical landscapes.