Studying change in perceived success of anti-corruption efforts in Poland: Insights from the Polish Panel Survey POLPAN 1989-2023

In recent years, Poland has been showcased as one of the paradox-countries where the public's opinion on corruption significantly diverge from expert opinions on the same matter. This paper aims to unravel this paradox by examining the dynamics and determinants of the effectiveness of anti-corruption efforts as perceived by general public in Poland since 1989. The inquiry is based on POLPAN longitudinal panel survey, initiated in 1989 and conducted every five years since then, with the latest data collection in 2023. The use of panel data, involving the same respondents queried at different time periods and ages, allows for rare tests on the determinants of opinion change. In this paper, I focus on the relationship between the assessment of government effectiveness in fighting corruption, levels of trust in political parties and political affiliation. Additionally, I investigate generational effects on corruption-related opinions. The analysis reveals that opinions on the level of corruption and the effectiveness of anti-corruption measures are fundamentally stable, irrespective of changes in the political system or the ruling party. Furthermore, the analyses also indicates a significant relation between the assessment of government effectiveness in fighting corruption, trust in political parties, party affiliation, and age. The paper also explores potential generational effects on perceived corruption levels and the effectiveness of the anti-corruption fight in Poland. This paper aims to contribute to the discussion on the determinants of public opinion on corruption and social change. It also provides reflections on the prospects of analysing generational effects in corruption perceptions, especially in countries of rapid socio-political change.