Navigating Polarized Autocracies: The Rise of Hungary’s Tisza Party in 2024

This study examines the emergence and rapid ascent of Hungary's Tisza Party, founded in April 2024 by former Fidesz insider Péter Magyar, amidst the country’s deeply polarized “populist electoral autocracy” (Benedek 2024; Bozóki-Benedek 2024). With the Orbán regime facing simultaneous internal and external crises—including economic instability, strained EU relations, and domestic dissatisfaction—the Tisza Party’s rise marks a pivotal moment in Hungary's political trajectory. This paper explores how the party’s strategies reflect and shape broader political dynamics during this critical juncture, with potential implications for the stability of the Hungarian political system. Focusing on the 2024 European Parliament elections, this analysis highlights the Tisza Party’s positioning within Hungary's polarized landscape. Compared to Fidesz, which exemplifies “equivocal” Eurosceptic (Heinisch et al. 2021) populism, the Tisza Party adopts a predominantly non-populist Eurosceptic stance, though it occasionally employs populist rhetoric in its critiques of the Hungarian government. This duality reflects the party’s navigation of an electorate deeply shaped by more than a decade of Fidesz-led polarization and governance. This duality invites exploration of how opposition forces operate under such polarized and autocratic conditions and what this means for the future of Hungary’s political system. The Tisza Party’s apparent resilience to political scandals—a phenomenon mirroring the durability of the Orbán regime—raises critical questions about how deeply entrenched systemic dynamics influence opposition movements. Its ability to transcend such challenges underscores the regime’s legacy in conditioning public perceptions, as well as the broader systemic constraints and opportunities shaping opposition success. This paper investigates the potential of the Tisza Party’s approach to either mitigate or exacerbate affective polarization and autocratization, considering its implications for both short-term political outcomes and long-term democratic prospects. By situating the Tisza Party within Hungary’s current landscape of external pressures and internal discontent, this paper contributes to the literature on contentious politics, affective polarization, and autocratization. It examines how opposition actors navigate polarized autocratic systems and evaluates their transformative potential, especially during periods of heightened polarization and systemic instability.