From Second-Order to First-Order? National versus European Determinants in the 2024 European Parliament Elections

The European Parliament elections have historically been perceived as second-order contests, with national issues and domestic political dynamics overshadowing European-level concerns. However, the 2024 EP elections occurred against a backdrop of unprecedented polarization and politicization within the European Union (EU), raising questions about a potential shift toward a first-order characterization. This study investigates the extent to which the 2024 EP elections were influenced by national versus European issues, in the context of evolving political cleavages across Europe. Utilizing a post-electoral survey tailored with questions from established electoral studies we explore the motivations behind voter choices in the 2024 EP elections in Poland. The survey focuses on key thematic areas: voter motivations, attitudes toward the EU, levels of polarization and trust in institutions, media influence, and the broader political context. Our research addresses four central questions: (1) Were Polish voter decisions more influenced by national topics, such as ideological stances and the current political issues, or by European issues like the EU's policies on the war in Ukraine, the Green Deal, and migration? (2) What were the main political cleavages during these elections, and how have they evolved compared to previous years? (3) To what extent did media shape the perception of the elections as a national versus EU-level decision? (4) How did the increasing polarization impact the perception of the EP elections as "first-order" contests? Preliminary findings suggest a nuanced interplay between national and European determinants of voting behavior. While domestic issues remain significant, European-level concerns have gained unprecedented prominence, particularly in light of external threats, environmental challenges, and migration crises. The data indicate a reconfiguration of political cleavages, with emerging divides along pro-EU versus Eurosceptic lines and liberal versus conservative values, reflecting deeper ideological shifts within European societies. The media's role is highlighted as a critical factor influencing voter perceptions. Analysis reveals that media outlets significantly affected how voters prioritized issues, thereby influencing the salience of European topics in the electoral decision-making process. Furthermore, the heightened polarization within member states appears to have elevated the stakes of the EP elections, contributing to their perception as more consequential and aligning them closer to first-order elections. This study contributes to the broader discourse on the evolving nature of EP elections amid rising polarization and the politicization of EU integration. By dissecting the factors that influenced voter decisions in the 2024 elections, we provide insights into how contemporary challenges—such as geopolitical conflicts, environmental policies, and migration—are reshaping the political landscape of the EU. Our findings have significant implications for understanding the future trajectory of European integration and the role of EP elections in reflecting and shaping public opinion across member states.