Bridging the Left-Authoritarian Gap: The Emergence and Implications of the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) in German and European Politics

The 2024 European Parliament elections marked the debut of a significant new contender in Germany's political landscape: the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). Founded in early 2024, the BSW rapidly secured over 6% of the vote, translating to six seats in the European Parliament. Its subsequent strong performance in subnational elections across Germany’s eastern Länder highlights the party’s capacity to reshape entrenched electoral dynamics, challenging established cleavages and party alignments. As a snap German federal election looms, little research has yet explored its ideological profile and the motivations driving voters to this nascent party. This study integrates panel data from the German Longitudinal Election Study, expert surveys, and BERT-based analyses of EU election manifestos to dissect the socio-political, ideological, and populist profile of the BSW and its electorate. As the first national contest involving the BSW, the 2024 European Parliament election provides a crucial case study for examining both demand and supply dynamics around this unique party. From a policy space perspective, the BSW fills a conspicuous void in Western European democracies, particularly among voters combining economically left-wing and culturally conservative views - a “left-authoritarian” supply gap. This paper explores how the BSW’s emergence is reshaping political competition in Germany by bundling positions previously unrepresented in the party system. The BSW’s unique policy positioning not only attracts a voter base previously underserved by Germany’s established parties but also signals a potential recalibration of European party competition. As the EU’s stance on the Russian war in Ukraine becomes a polarizing issue, the BSW’s clear pro-Russia rhetoric - mirroring that of the populist radical-right AfD - raises critical questions about voter alignment on foreign policy. Do these positions resonate with an electorate disillusioned by the EU’s support for Ukraine, and how does this alignment influence the cohesion of the BSW’s voter coalition? The findings from counterfactual modeling with entropy balancing and extensive sensitivity analysis illuminate the BSW’s potential for enduring relevance and its ability to address representation gaps in the German electorate, potentially providing a blueprint for challenger parties in other European countries. However, the longer-term stability of its voter coalition - largely drawn from former supporters of left-liberal and radical-left parties - remains an open question. The BSW’s rise offers critical insights into the evolving structure of political competition and the interplay of ideology, populism, and voter behavior in contemporary Germany and beyond, possible hinting at future challenges in other European countries with left-authoritarian supply gaps.