Transforming Flood Risk Communication in Limburg Province, the Netherlands: A Historical Perspective and Strategic Insights from Advocacy Coalition Framework

Over the past decades, flood risk management in the Netherlands has shifted from engineering-focused, centralized approaches to inclusive, multi-stakeholder frameworks. This transition reflects escalating flood risks and the growing need for stakeholder collaboration. In this context, communication mechanisms have emerged as key mediators, facilitating stakeholder interactions during this transition. By integrating the concepts of Flood Risk Communication and Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF), this study analyzes how communication mechanisms shape stakeholder interactions and foster consensus across different stages of flood risk governance—planning, preparation, response, and recovery. These mechanisms also support the formation and collaboration of coalitions, laying a foundation for policy evolution and governance transformation. Flood risk communication focuses on the exchange of information among stakeholders to foster consensus and coordination, while ACF explores how shared beliefs drive the formation of coalitions and influence policy change. Combining these two concepts, this study identifies risk communication as a core pathway for achieving inclusive and adaptive flood risk governance goals. Under conditions of flood uncertainty and crisis, effective communication fosters collaboration, playing a crucial role in strengthening social resilience and catalyzing governance transformation. To investigate these dynamics, this study employs document analysis and a coding framework to systematically classify and analyze Dutch flood policy documents, the 2021 Limburg flood evaluation reports, and core literature. It seeks to uncover how communication mechanisms evolve and contribute to driving policy transformation. The 2021 Limburg flood serves as a core case study. It is situated within the broader historical trajectory of Dutch flood policy evolution since the 1953 North Sea flood, highlighting the continuity and innovation in Dutch flood risk communication mechanisms. The findings demonstrate the dual role of risk communication mechanisms: structuring stakeholder interactions during crises and serving as advocacy platforms for long-term policy change. For instance, live data sharing during the 2021 Limburg flood crisis enabled rapid evacuation planning, while cross-sector collaboration facilitated alignment between ecological and engineering coalitions. However, the case also exposed significant limitations, such as delayed early warnings, inadequate predictions and guidance, and decreased governmental trust. These challenges underscore the complexity and constraints of flood risk communication mechanisms, offering critical insights for advancing adaptive flood risk governance. Theoretically, this study advances the discourse on flood governance by bridging the gap between communication dynamics and coalition behavior, providing novel insights into adaptive governance. Practically, it offers actionable recommendations to optimize communication strategies and enhance collaboration and social resilience in flood-prone regions. The experience of Limburg highlights the pivotal role of communication mechanisms in effective flood risk governance and provides transferable lessons for regions worldwide facing escalating flood risks. (Dear professors, This paper is currently in progress and will be completed by the end of March. Many thanks for your understanding! Best regards!