Trust, Corruption, and Carbon Tax Fairness: Experimental Evidence from Lithuania

Policy makers widely recognize pollution taxes as one of the most cost-effective and impactful measures for reducing emissions that drive climate change. Paradoxically, despite their efficacy, pollution taxes remain one of the least publicly supported climate policies. Public opposition is often attributed to concerns about fairness and distrust in governmental institutions who would need to carry out these policies. This study investigates how public support for carbon taxation is impacted by awareness of corruption in a country. Using the latest Transparency International corruption report, we examine whether raising awareness of corruption (via priming) affects respondents' acceptance of carbon taxes, alongside their perceptions of the policy's fairness and effectiveness. The study focuses on Lithuania, where a carbon tax—introduced as a fuel excise with a pollution reduction component—is set to take effect in January 2025. Specifically, we assess whether the priming of the individuals to information about corruption levels decreases their support for the forthcoming fuel excise tax increase, as compared to those unexposed to such information. To test this hypothesis, we conduct a pre-registered face-to-face vignette-based survey experiment (N=1000) within a representative national omnibus sample. We also analyze heterogeneity in treatment effects across subgroups, including political orientation (left- vs. right-leaning), gender, car ownership, education level, income, trust in science, and political trust. Furthermore, we explore whether this relationship is mediated by respondents’ perceptions of fairness and effectiveness. The data collection is currently underway, with preliminary results expected in late December.