The Impact of Exogenous Shocks on Affective Polarization: Examining the ‎Israeli Case Post-October 7th Events

How do exogenous shocks shape the extent of affective polarization? While recent ‎‎studies have examined under which circumstances affective polarization can be ‎‎reduced, little attention has been given to the potential effect of exogenous shocks on ‎‎political systems, and their ability to reduce affective polarization. An accepted ‎‎assumption is that external threat perception can lead to a ‘Rally-Round-the-Flag’ ‎‎effect, fostering greater social cohesion. However, recent work suggests that external ‎‎threats do not necessarily decrease social animosity and might even increase ‎‎polarization. These studies often rely on simulated threats within a lab experiment or ‎‎addressed ongoing prolonged conflicts spanning decades, leaving a gap in ‎‎understanding the consequences of real-time exogenous shock. ‎ The October 7th events and the ensuing Gaza war present an opportunity to examine ‎‎this in Israel, a highly polarized society. Using a unique survey experiment that ‎manipulates political and national identities, this study sheds light on the mechanism ‎‎that shapes affective polarization in times of crisis: the strength of political ‎‎identification. We find that exogenous shocks reduce effective polarization among ‎individuals who enhance their national identity and increase among those who ‎reinforce their political identity. Understanding this impact is crucial both for ‎academic scholarship and for informing public policy and discourse. Exploring the ‎effects of real-time exogenous shocks may contribute to a more nuanced ‎understanding of how sudden, significant events can alter political and social ‎dynamics.‎