Unprecedented Times, Unprecedented Choices: Investigating Political Elites’ Reactions to Uncertainty During the Covid-19 Pandemic in the United Kingdom

Uncertainty pervades political decisions. Be it how to respond to climate change or a sudden financial crisis; political elites such as ministers or parliamentarians frequently have to act while a situation is unclear or unpredictable. Faced with uncertainty, political elites may display a variety of responses or reactions (Vis, 2024). For instance, they may avoid the issue altogether; they may downplay its uncertainty; or they may look for more information. All these reactions were also shown in response to the Covid-19 pandemic: some politicians ignored the disease; others compared it to the flu; others still tried to set up elaborate testing systems. The extant literature, however, offers conflicting expectations about the conditions leading political elites to display different reactions. This study aims to answer this puzzle by identifying reactions to the evolving uncertainty of the Covid-19 pandemic shown by political elites in the United Kingdom. Uncertainty was a key feature of the pandemic, with its scope and rapidly shifting nature presenting different uncertain challenges at different times. For example, the possibility of asymptomatic transmission was uncertain at the start of the crisis but became more certain over time, whereas citizen adherence to interventions remained uncertain throughout. In particular, some uncertain challenges exhibited resolvable uncertainty – where additional information could resolve the uncertainty – whereas others exhibited radical uncertainty – where there was such ambiguity, vagueness, or novelty that more information was insufficient for removing the uncertainty (Kay and King, 2020). By tracking these uncertainties and their type through time alongside the reactions shown by political elites, the study will investigate the (potential) link between the two. Our key data source is the British Covid-19 Inquiry (https://covid19.public-inquiry.uk/), which provides uniquely detailed accounts of key decision-makers’ perspectives during the pandemic through extensive statements, hearings, and records of personal communications. This enables us to understand the judgments and decisions of politicians in more detail than would ordinarily be possible, including how these judgments changed over time. The study comprises of qualitative content analysis of the hearings of key decision makers from this inquiry. We will analyse these documents, coding both the uncertain challenge and the reaction shown to that uncertainty. We will triangulate the reactions using witness statements, records personal communication from during the crisis, and other hearings. Together, this will allow us to investigate how different types of uncertainty influenced reactions, judgments, or decisions from political elites. This study contributes by linking uncertainty to reactions from political elites. By doing so, this study hopes to provide insight into how different types of uncertainty produce different reactions. By doing so, this study hopes to provide insight into the causal mechanisms through which uncertainty influences political decisions.