In person icon Evidence and Policymaking in Times of Uncertainty and Polycrisis

Abstract

This panel addresses the timely question how varying degrees and types of (un-)certainty affect political decision-making. Policymaking often revolves around uncertainty, such as in the case of climate change, COVID-19, energy supply or digitalization. Yet, whether the uncertainty is 'resolvable' and risk-based, or 'radical'—dominated by a lack of understanding and ambiguity—has profound implications for decision-making (King & Kay, 2020; Vis, 2024). Resolvable uncertainty and the risk-based weighting of outcomes and consequences is argued by some scholars to be the political and social foundation of contemporary governance (Beck & Ritter, 1992; Douglas & Wildavsky, 1982) (Beck 1992, Douglas and Wildavsky 1982). In this context, existing research has highlighted the importance of scientific evidence in shaping public policy (Cairney, 2016; Herweg et al., 2023). However, what remains underexplored is how various forms of uncertainty (e.g., resolvable or risk-based; radical) and degrees (regarding both the quality and availability of information) shape the relationship between scientific evidence and political action. The interplay between knowledge gaps and policy decisions often leads to contested narratives, where the legitimacy and authority of scientific advice are called into question, further complicating governance in complex and uncertain environments. Against this background, this panel aims to explore how varying forms and degrees of uncertainty shape policymaking across different contexts discussing question such as: How do different forms and degrees of (scientific) uncertainty shape political decision-making? What role does uncertainty play in the framing and use of scientific evidence in policymaking? How is evidence framed, utilized and contested under various degrees of uncertainty, and in different contexts? How does uncertainty shape the interaction between policymakers and scientists? In what ways does uncertainty impact policy legitimacy and public trust in politics during crises? Beck, U., & Ritter, M. (1992). Risk society. Towards a new modernity. Sage. Cairney, P. (2016). The politics of evidence-based policy making. Palgrave. Douglas, M., & Wildavsky, A. B. (1982). Risk and culture : an essay on the selection of technical and environmental dangers. Univ. of Calif. Press. http://library.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/toc/z2008_148.pdf Herweg, N., Zahariadis, N., & Zohlnhöfer, R. (2023). The Multiple Streams Framework: Foundations, Refinements, and Empirical Applications. In C. Weible (Ed.), Theories of the Policy Process (5th ed) (pp. 29-64). Routledge. King, M., & Kay, J. (2020). Radical uncertainty: Decision-making for an unknowable future. Norton & Co. Vis, B. (2024). Introducing a Conceptual Map of Political Elites’ Responses to Different Types of Uncertain Phenomena. Political Studies Review, 14789299231222847.

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