Knowledge, Uncertainty and Policy Change: A Multiple Streams Perspective

Knowledge and uncertainty are defining elements of the policy environment, influencing how policies can be generated, interpreted, and applied. While the Multiple Streams Framework (Kingdon 1984,Herweg et.al.2023) provides a valuable lens to understand the complexities of the policy process, and attributes significant attention to ambiguity as an essential characteristic, it lacks a systematic reflection on how different types of uncertainty shape this ambiguity. Drawing on a multidimensional framework of uncertainty (Knight, 1921; Dewulf & Biesbroek, 2018), and recent contributions on policymakers’ behavior under radical uncertainty (Vis 2024), we argue that the degree of uncertainty present, fundamentally alters the interaction of the three streams and coupling processes. When no problem-specific policy alternatives exist, and faced with a focusing event, partial-coupling between the problem and politics stream will occur. Under these conditions, the successful framing by problem brokers will tilt the tradeoff between “engage or ignore”(Vis 2024) towards a precautionary response, that builds on heuristics over specific solutions.