The External Dimension of Democratic Resilience: Lessons from Poland’s 2023 Elections

This article broadens the debate on factors influencing potential re-democratization by highlighting the often-overlooked international dimension. Building on the literature on democratic resilience and external influences on democratic developments, it develops two key conditions that, when combined, can foster re-democratization. The first emphasizes the decisive roles of international democracy promoters, such as the United States, provided they are led by pro-democracy governments. The second focuses on the EU’s democratic multi-level governance system, challenging the dominant scholarly narrative of an “authoritarian equilibrium” by arguing that the EU underwent a learning process to effectively address backsliding. These conditions are tested using Poland as a case study. The analysis demonstrates how, facilitated by Poland’s semi-presidential system, international democracy promoters helped level the democratic playing field. Additionally, the EU’s withholding of funds under its rule-of-law conditionality since 2022 proved pivotal on election day in October 2023, triggering a shift toward democratic restoration fueled by Polish voters’ strong Europhile sentiments and desire for EU financial support. The findings underscore the necessity of including the international dimension in studies of democratic resilience. They also reveal that similar conditions for leveling the playing field are absent in Hungary, where the Putin regime exerts considerable influence. The return of Donald Trump to power in the U.S. and the resurgence of far-right forces in the EU raise critical concerns about whether re-democratization represents enduring change or temporary episodes shaped by fluctuating international dynamics.