Democratic Backsliding and the Eurosceptic Factor

This paper examines the relationship between Euroscepticism and democratic backsliding, critical challenges facing European integration amidst rising political polarization, populism, and the ongoing Ukraine war. By analysing an integrated quantitative dataset from 1995 to the present, the study explores how attitudes toward the European Union influence democratic resilience and decline in both new and established EU member states. Previous research highlighted the EU's role in promoting democratic support in post-communist states while demonstrating that Euroscepticism, particularly in candidate and member states, can undermine this effect (Toth, 2018). Building on these findings, this study investigates whether Euroscepticism continues to erode democratic norms in contemporary contexts, especially in light of heightened political divisions, far-right populism, and security concerns exacerbated by the Ukraine war. This research connects to broader debates on European integration by addressing whether democratic backsliding and Euroscepticism represent systemic flaws threatening the EU’s cohesion. It also explores variations between Eastern and Western Europe, analyzing whether these dynamics are unique to newer democracies or increasingly relevant across the Union. By engaging with contemporary challenges such as the rule of law crisis, rising nationalism, and the EU's evolving geopolitical role, the paper contributes to critical discussions on the future of European integration and democratic governance.