Social Group Appeals in Western European Mainstream Parties (1960–2023): A Supervised Learning Approach

The relationship between social groups and mainstream political parties has been central to the development of Western representative democracies. Social democrats traditionally appealed to the working class, liberals and conservatives to managerial and professional classes, and Christian democrats to religious communities. Over time, secularization and dealignment have disrupted these connections, contributing to the decline of mainstream parties. This raises questions about whether and how these parties have adapted their appeals to address evolving societal dynamics. This paper investigates social group appeals in mainstream party manifestos across eight Western European countries (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, and Portugal) from 1960 to 2023. It examines the frequency, diversity, and concentration of social group mentions and distinguishes between positive and negative appeals. Positive appeals align with representational logic, explicitly targeting groups, while negative appeals use a reference-based approach, mobilizing support through criticism of certain groups. The research employs a novel methodological framework combining supervised token classification, semi-supervised clustering, and sentiment analysis to systematically identify and evaluate social group mentions. By applying this inductive approach to a large dataset, the study offers new insights into party strategies and their adaptation to changing societal contexts. By tracking changes over time, across parties, and countries, the findings reveal shifts in mainstream party communication and their alignment with social groups. This contributes to broader debates on electoral dynamics and the evolving role of social groups in political representation.