Securitization of Climate Change Adaptation Policies

The starting point for this paper is an earlier analysis of changes in emergency management in Belgium that have accompanied growing security concerns in the country after the 2016 terrorist attacks, in line with the evolution observed in Western countries since the 9/11 terrorist attacks (Glesner & Fallon 2023). New core principles are hampering cooperation, communication, and trust in rescue services: these changes are indicators of the rise of a new “emergency management security regime” that contradicts the original safety regime applied since the 1960s. Our ongoing work on the risk analysis related to the impacts of climate change and biodiversity loss in Belgium (CRA) confirms this trend. Political attention to climate change and biodiversity loss is strongly decreasing and very low on the political agenda as confirmed in the 2024 general election: the new political programs decrease their budgets for environmental related issues while increasing the expenses in the military system, arms production and security related projects. This current trend is confirmed by the recent Belgian National Risk Analysis (2024) - and the National Security Strategy (2021) : the attention to climate related risks is much lower than “man made risks” and vulnerability of global networks and technological systems. This paper will analyze recent trends in GIEC reports which contribute to a stronger proximity with security related policies. Two first examples of higher proximity are: 1) Since 2014, the GIEC working groups develop their references on the concept of risk assessment rather than vulnerability : all three AR6 Working Groups now apply a same risk-based framework (IPCC, 2020). Tools for iterative risk assessment & management support dynamic adaptive pathways through time. 2) Climate risk and disaster risk communities are increasingly addressing together risk-based concerns. Disaster management is one of the main pilar of the national security strategy (Commission Recommendation of 8 February 2023 on Union disaster resilience goals 2023/C 56/01). Considering the increasing interactions between these two policy sectors, we propose to examine the hypothesis that this proximity affects the configuration of each policy network. The data will be collected during the setup and stakeholders discussions for the Belgian CRA (which will be reported to the National Security Council in september 25) to inform increase or decrease in attention to this “securitisation” of CRA.