The U.S. Transatlantic Policy During the Second Term of Donald Trump: a Point of No Return?

Since the onset of Donald Trump’s second presidential term, U.S. transatlantic policy appears to have undergone a significant recalibration. The Trump 2.0 administration has introduced tariffs with adverse effects on European economies, questioned the territorial integrity of a NATO member state, accused the European Union of restricting freedom of expression, and openly entertained the prospect of relinquishing U.S. leadership within the Alliance. These developments have reignited debates over the durability of transatlantic relations and raised concerns that the current trajectory may constitute a point of no return. This paper examines U.S. transatlantic policy during Trump’s second term and critically assesses whether recent shifts represent a structural rupture or rather a recurring episode of American isolationism with historical precedents. It addresses several interrelated questions: What vision does the current administration articulate regarding the core pillars of transatlantic cooperation? Which policy instruments are employed to operationalize this vision? How does the administration redefine the respective roles of the United States and its European allies within NATO? How is Russia positioned in the administration’s conception of the European security architecture? Finally, what strategic dilemmas and adjustment costs may European states face as U.S. priorities evolve? Drawing on original empirical material collected through semi-structured interviews with foreign and defense policy experts based in Washington, D.C., the paper seeks to illuminate the internal logic, constraints, and consequences of Trump-era transatlantic policy, while situating current developments within a broader historical and strategic context.