Persist or Withdraw? How Civil Society Actors Decide on Engagement During Democratic Backsliding

Across Europe, civil society organizations face mounting pressures from democratic backsliding. Understanding democratic resilience requires examining the decision-making processes that link threat scenarios (anti-democratic tendencies, attacks, conflicts) to individual-level outcomes (sustained engagement versus burnout and withdrawal), which in turn, could be essential in shaping whether democracies remain strong. Preliminary research examined how civil society organizations face shrinking spaces due to current crises and anti-democratic forces. We identified three main restrictions: difficulties implementing activities (Sowa, Ramadan, Schöll & Sträter, 2026 under review), growing emotional strain on staff (Albrecht et al., 2025), and security concerns (Sommer & Ratzmann, 2022; Schöll, 2025). At the same time, we observed reactive and proactive civic resistance in forms of adjustments in their activities, increased security measures, and alliance-building and strengthening of networks (Sowa et al., 2026 under review). Ongoing regional analyses reveal that these factors vary systematically across regions in Germany, with certain areas characterized by both structural disadvantage and multiple democratic challenges (see also Becker et al., 2025), providing variation for examining how contextual factors moderate organizational as well as individual responses to threats. While observing threats and constraints on civil society organizations, organizational resilience and democratic resilience depend on individuals. This leads to research questions about the individual-level decision-making processes that determine whether democratic civil society remains or collapses. What cognitive and emotional mechanisms enable staff members, volunteers, and activists to sustain engagement despite increasing threats? Under what conditions do threats lead to withdrawal due to exhaustion, fear, or disillusionment? How do individual differences and regional contexts shape these decision-making processes? This research develops a framework linking macro- and meso-level threats to micro-level engagement decisions while outlining an empirical research plan to investigate these processes, proposing a model connecting threat perception to engagement outcomes through cognitive and emotional pathways. Civil society actors must evaluate risks, weigh costs against benefits under uncertainty, and sustain motivation despite emotional depletion. Individual differences—including activism orientation (Corning & Myers, 2002), biographical experiences, and personality traits—shape these appraisal processes, while regional structural contexts may amplify or buffer threat impacts (Copeland et al., 2021). A mixed-methods approach will enable an intensive study of engaged citizens by assessing civil society staff and volunteers in Germany. These findings will be combined with representative data from panel data sources, including measures of political behavior and civic engagement. Experimental studies will complement observational data by testing causal relationships between threat perception, cognitive and emotional appraisal, and engagement decisions. By bridging organizational and individual levels of analysis, this framework contributes to understanding democratic resilience by taking macro-level democratic decline and micro-level civic behavior into account.