Studying Authoritarian Regimes After the Arab Spring

In 2011, research on the politics of authoritarian rule was in full swing. Barbara Geddes’ seminal article had put authoritarian regimes back on the map of comparative politics twelve years before, giving rise to a productive subfield. Among a variety of themes, this literature placed special emphasis on explaining why, in an age of democratisation, many authoritarian regimes seemed so remarkably resistant to change. Then the Arab Spring hit. Among the regimes that fell were some that were deemed the most stable. Formal institutions, considered by many as the hallmark of persistent autocracy, did not only fail to prevent the emergence of large scale popular uprisings, but also did little to insulate autocratic rulers from the pressure of popular discontent. As ruling parties collapsed and street politics superseded electoral processes, actors and dynamics took centre stage that had been all but neglected in previous research. Contention spread from country to country with the help of satellite channels and social media, autocrats drew their own lessons from the fall of Ben Ali in Tunisia and tried to adapt, and men with guns took over the initiative in many cases. Within the discipline, these events led to a period of soul-searching. Why had nobody seen the Arab Spring coming? Why had the discipline collectively predicted stability when the region was so obviously and manifestly unstable? We propose to take a step back and to ask what the discipline has learned from these ground-shaking events. How has the Arab Spring altered the way we think about authoritarian rule? We invite colleagues to submit organised Panels or individual Papers to the Section. Note that contributions are not required to deal with the Arab Spring or MENA region, but might reflect recent theoretical and empirical developments in research on authoritarian regimes more generally, including in other corners of the world. Panels and Papers could include, but are not limited to, the following list of themes: Contentious Politics under Authoritarian Rule The popular uprisings of the Arab Spring prompted many scholars to take a closer look at the role of contentious politics in authoritarian regimes. Therefore, the tools of social movement studies were fruitfully introduced to the study of authoritarian regimes. Which new insights into the workings and effects of civil society under authoritarian rule can we gain from these studies? How can this new line of research be reconciled with the previous emphasis on elite bargains and political institutions as the primary source of authoritarian resilience? The International Dimension of Authoritarian Rule: Linkage, Learning, Diffusion, and Support Recent years have seen a lively debate about the international dimension of authoritarian rule. Many studies explicitly highlighted international politics during the Arab Spring and in its aftermath. Themes include autocracy promotion; Black Knights; the diffusion of contentious politics and authoritarian practice; authoritarian learning; and the effects of international linkage of autocratic regimes. Revolutions Gone Awry: Uprisings, State Failure, and Civil War Research on uprisings against autocracy has thus far overwhelmingly understood success or failure in terms of the fall or survival in office of autocratic rulers. Current events in the Middle East, however, serve as a reminder that civil war and state failure are other possible outcomes. What is the relationship between popular uprisings and the onset of violent domestic conflicts? Under what circumstances can political conflict be contained and when does it escalate into armed violence? Authoritarian Rule in the Internet Age The use of online communication and social media has been an outstanding feature of the Arab Spring. On the one hand, protesters have used the new media to communicate, coordinate, and mobilise. On the other hand, autocratic rulers have tried to restrict internet access and used the internet as a means of surveillance and to distribute regime propaganda. How does the internet affect authoritarian politics and public spheres after the Arab Spring? Back to the Future: Authoritarian Upgrading, Retrenchment and Restoration While long-standing autocratic rulers in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya were swept away by the Arab Spring, others were able to even strengthen their grip on power. How has the rapid collapse of some authoritarian regimes entrenched others, in the region and beyond? The Men with Guns: Autocratic Civil-Military Relations Arab militaries have re-emerged as kingmakers in the aftermath of the uprisings in the Middle East. Where embattled autocrats could count on armed support, they survived the popular uprisings, where the military did not intervene to put down protests, autocrats fell. This observation has given rise to renewed interest in the relation between autocratic rulers and their militaries. How do autocrats coup-proof their armies? What are the consequences of coup proofing for military behaviour in regime crises? What is the relation between different forms of civil-military relations and the decision by the top brass to defect from or defend the regime? For any questions regarding Panel or Paper submission to the Section, please do not hesitate to contact the Section Convenors, Alexander Schmotz (alexander.schmotz@wzb.eu) or Kevin Koehler (k.koehler@ndc.nato.int).