Managing transitions: political economy and welfare state change in a turbulent era

Managing transitions: political economy and welfare state change in a turbulent era Abstract Political economies around the world are undergoing deep transformations. Some of these trends have been already in the background for some time. Since the 1970s, tectonic shifts in industrial and trade regimes have fostered wide divergence across capitalist types, spurring welfare states to adapt to increasingly dynamic labour markets and open economies. At the same time, socio-demographic changes have been associated with the emergence of new social risks, and encouraged a rethinking of the old social contract in the triangle between (welfare) state, market and society. These longstanding challenges have recently been paralleled by new and pressing issues. Rapid technological advances and the incidence of environmental degradation have put modern political economies under strain. The so-called ‘twin transition’ (green and digital) may present unforeseen opportunities, such as leveraging state intervention to foster inclusive prosperity and accommodate new ‘eco-social’ needs. At the same time, the failure to respond to these challenges might come with the risks of heightening inequalities and triggering potential backlash from groups that bear the costs of transition policies. Against this backdrop, the section aims to explore variation in political economy and welfare regimes in-between transitions. We take a broad understanding of political economy and welfare, and encourage contributions that span across a wide range of topics – such as social investment and the rise of the knowledge economy, new social risks, eco-social policies, automation and green industrial strategies. We survey cutting-edge topics at the intersection of these scholarships, welcoming both qualitative and quantitative works that aim to theorize, describe, critique or interpret the ‘policy’ and ‘politics’ of the multiple transitions. We invite submissions that focus on socio-economic outcomes, political processes and dynamics, structural transformations, as well as modes of state governance in turbulent times. Section chair Luca Cigna (LUISS University) Section co-chair Margarita Gelepithis (Cambridge University) Proposed panels and chairs 1. The social investment turn: winners and losers of the knowledge economy Proposed chair: Margarita Gelepithis The Social Investment (SI) paradigm promises to cope with pressing demographic and fiscal constraints, enhancing employment and human capital formation in tune with the requirements of the emerging ‘knowledge economy’. However, it remains unclear whether social investment can effectively respond to new social needs or mitigate inequalities, and whether advanced economies can forge effective coalitions to spearhead social investment transitions. This panel explores how welfare institutions can be recast to accommodate increasingly knowledge-intensive industrial regimes. It examines both the policy and the politics of social investment, paying particular attention to coalition-building and conflict between relevant political actors. 2. Politics and policies of a just transition: reconciling welfare and climate change Proposed chairs: Ekaterina Domorenok, Paolo Graziano How do welfare states confront the environmental crisis? Is climate change inherently a threat to welfare infrastructures, making social and environmental needs irreconcilable? Can we see any ‘silver lining’? In the welfare state debate, eco-social policy has gained purchase as a paradigm able to combine social goals, such as income security and skill upgrading, with aims of decarbonization and respect for planetary boundaries. Similarly, some scholars and trade unionists have set forth the idea of a ‘just transition’ as a strategy for industrial reconversion while paying attention to both social justice and environmental constraints. The panel investigates eco-social policies and their underlying politics, welcoming theoretical, empirical and critical contributions on these topics. 3. Industrial policy and state subsidies across time and space Proposed chairs: Donato Di Carlo, Lorenzo Mascioli Over the last few years and especially following the Covid-19 pandemic, governments across the globe have made ever more frequent use of industrial policy, meant to respond to pressing challenges and the need for a twin (green and digital) transition. Notably, a rise in the adoption of government subsidies has been observed, fueling concerns over potential ‘subsidy wars’ in the global economy. This panels aims to examine the new politics of industrial policy and state subsidies, welcoming contributions that investigate why, how and under which conditions advanced market economies foster these forms of state intervention and potential consequences for the broader geopolitical landscape. 4. Comparative capitalisms in the green transition Proposed chairs: Fabio Bulfone, Timur Ergen, Nina Lopez-Uroz What strategies do government adopt to foster a green transition? Do green investment policies conform to countries’ idiosyncratic growth models and/or pre-eminent industrial regimes? How can green-minded policy-makers overcome organized resistance and promote decarbonization policies? Over the last three decades, countries have made increasing efforts to transition away from fossil fuels and shift towards low-carbon economies. However, there is variation in how different countries specialize with respect to the ‘green global value chain’ (innovation, manufacturing, deployment of green technologies), and the policy ‘mixes’ they adopt to pursue such goals. The panel covers the comparative political economy of a green transition and green industrial policies, focusing specifically on variation across green industrial strategies, political initiatives taken by governments and organized interests (unions, employers), and what coalitions can be crafted in diverse contexts. 5. Welfare states in the digital age: technology, automation, and inequalities Proposed chair: Gibrán Cruz-Martínez The Fordist era corresponded with a phase of tremendous expansion for the welfare state, largely due to the complementarities between wage-led growth, localized industrial manufacturing and a politically cohesive working class. However, the transition towards services since the 1980s, together with the rise of automation and technological change in the 1990s-2000s, have problematized the relationship between skills, innovation and welfare. Without an updated welfare infrastructure, technological advances are likely to deepen inequalities and polarize socio-economic trajectories across groups at either ends of the skill distribution. The panel investigates the nexus between welfare, social outcomes and the politics of technological change, welcoming contributions from comparative political economy, welfare states, economic and political sociology, or similar fields.