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Panel Data Analysis

Course Dates and Times

Monday 7 - Friday 11 August

14:00 - 17:30

Please see Timetable for full details.

David Pupovac

davidpupovac@gmail.com

The course provides a comprehensive introduction to panel (pooled cross-sectional time series) data analysis. The goal of the course is to provide a general understanding of the methods of analysing pooled cross-sectional time series data sets and to train students in extracting inferences from data collected over time and across space. The course will gradually introduce more complex concepts and aspects of pooled cross-sectional time series data analysis. Thus, it is appropriate for both students who have a basic training in statistical analysis and students who have a more advanced statistical background. Although the course will cover the theory and the mathematics of the analysis and estimation, the emphasis is on practical approach. The examples of application of the statistical techniques to the data will be presented in the class, and students will perform data analyses where the focus will be on practical problems of macro panel data. The course materials are designed to help participants to solve their own estimation problems and increase the reliability and efficiency of their statistical results.


Instructor Bio

David Pupovac obtained his PhD in Political Science from Central European University in Budapest.

His main research interests are in applied statistics with an emphasis on electoral politics, voting behaviour and the radical right.

David teaches courses in quantitative methods and applied statistics at Lazarski University in Poland.

The methods of analysing pooled cross-sectional time series are applicable to a large selection of research questions and travel across disciplines. The pooled cross-sectional time series data structure has the advantage of allowing for testing of highly general theories. We will work with time series aggregated across units such as countries, firms or individuals. These data structures render data analysis more complicated since one has to consider both the time-series aspects such as dynamic effects and spatial aspects such as unit heterogeneity at the same time. The course examines the problems arising from these complex data structures and provides techniques to control and account for specific complications. We will start out by discussing characteristics and types of pooled data and underlying assumptions of basic statistical models for panel data. We then address specification problems such as complex error structures, different kinds of heterogeneity, dynamic specification issues (lag structures), spatial heterogeneity and dependency, time invariant and rarely changing variables in panel data analysis. The course will address these topics by gradually introducing more demanding concepts and techniques. The participants will be trained to select the most appropriate statistical method given the particular research question and a specific data set, to implement statistical techniques using suitable software, and to assess the empirical evidence for the argument.

Day 1

The first lecture approaches the problem of panel data from the linear regression perspective. The regression assumptions are discussed in detail while the accent is on the assumption violations with respect to unit heterogeneity and autocorrelation. The remaining time of the session will address feasible generalized least squares, clustered Huber/White/sandwich estimator and panel-corrected standard errors.

Day 2

The second session is initiated by discussing distinction between the within and between effects. Firstly, we will discuss estimation of between effects model. However, the focus of the session will be on addressing the theory of fixed effects models; particularly, on estimation of fixed effects using dummy variables and demeaning; and estimation of fixed effect in Stata, Furthermore, Hurwicz/Nickell bias is discussed, while the final segment of the class dedicated to discussion of two way fixed effects model.

Day 3

The third session will firstly address one way random effects model. The distinction between random effects and fixed effects models is elaborated in detail. In addition, we will discuss the Hausman test and the selection between random effects and fixed effects models. Furthermore, we will discuss the relevant diagnostics tests. Finally, we will progress to fixed- and random-effects linear models with an AR(1) disturbance and discuss modelling dynamics in panel data.

Day 4

In the fourth session the discussion on unit heterogeneity and dynamics is further extended by addressing random coefficients model. In this section we will address the problem of spatial autocorrelation and methodological alternatives for addressing this type of problems. Lastly, the extensions of panel data analysis to binary, multinomial and censored dependent variables are presented.

Day 5

The final session is dedicated to the more advance topics in panel data analysis. In this session we will discuss several topics including: problems and solutions for unbalanced data sets; time invariant and slowly moving variables; instrumental variable approaches and simultaneous equation models.

The participants need to be familiar with basic statistical concepts, have knowledge of linear regression model, have understanding of the basics of inferential statistics, and some understanding of  generalized least squares and generalized linear models.

The students need to have basic knowledge of Stata.

Day Topic Details
Monday Introduction to panel data analysis, clustered standard errors and panel corrected standard errors.

90min lecture, 90min lab

Tuesday Within and between effects, fixed effects models

90min lecture, 90min lab

Wednesday Random effects and modelling dynamics in panel data

90min lecture, 90min lab

Thursday Random coefficients, spatial autocorrelation, binary, multinomial and censored dependent variables

90min lecture, 90min lab

Friday Unbalanced data sets, time invariant and slowly moving variables, instrumental variable and simultaneous equation models

90min lecture, 90min lab

Day Readings
Monday

Beck, Nathaniel and Jonathan N. Katz. 1995. What to do (and not to do) with time-series cross-section data. American Political Science Review 89 (3): 634-647.

Beck, Nathaniel 2001: “Time-Series-Cross-Section Data: What Have We Learned in the Past Few Years?” Annual Review of Political Science 4, 271-293.

Tuesday

Green, Donald P., Soo Yeon Kim and David H. Yoon. 2001. Dirty pool. International Organization 55(2):441-468.

Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. 2002: Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, MIT Press, Cambridge, chpts. 10-11

Plümper, Thomas, Troeger, Vera E. and Philip Manow 2005: “Panel Data Analysis in Comparative Politics. Linking Method to Theory.” European Journal of Political Research 44, 327-354.

Wednesday

Linzer, Drew and Tom Clark. 2012. Should I use random effects or fixed effects? Manuscript in progress.

Beck, Nathaniel and Jonathan N. Katz. 2011. Modeling Dynamics in Time-Series-Cross-Section Political Economy Data. Annual Review of Political Science 14:331-352.

Wawro, Gregroy. 2002. Estimating dynamic panel data models in political science. Political Analysis 10(1): 25-48.

Thursday

Beck, Nathaniel and Jonathan N. Katz. 2007. Random coefficient models for time series-cross-section data. Political Analysis 15(2): 182-195

Franzese, Robert J. and Jude C. Hays. 2007. Spatial econometric models of crosssectional interdependence in political science panel and time-series-cross-section data. Political Analysis 15(2): 140-164.

Beck, Nathaniel Kristian Skrede Gleditsch and Kyle Beardsley. 2006. Space is more than geography: Using spatial econometrics in the study of political economy. International Studies Quarterly 50(1): 27-44.

Beck, Nathaniel, Jonathan N. Katz and Richard Tucker. 1998. Taking time seriously: time-series-cross-section analysis with a binary dependent variable. American Journal of Political Science 42(4): 1260-1288.

Carter, David B. and Curtis S. Signorino. 2010. Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data. Political Analysis 18(3): 271-292

Friday

Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. 2003: Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, MIT Press, Cambridge, chpts. 5-9, pp. 83-247.

Plümper, Thomas and Vera E. Troeger 2007: “Efficient Estimation of Time-Invariant and Rarely Changing Variables in Finite Sample Panel Analyses with Unit Fixed Effects.” Political Analysis 15, 124-139.

Plümper, Thomas and Vera E. Troeger 2011: “Fixed Effects Vector Decomposition: Properties, Reliability and Instruments.” Political Analysis 19, 147-164.

Wilson, Sven E. and Danial M. Butler 2007: A Lot More to Do: The Sensitivity of Time-Series Cross-Section Analyses to Simple Alternative Specifications. Political Analysis 15: 101-123

Software Requirements

Stata

Hardware Requirements

Stata, version 11 or higher.

Literature

Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. (2003) Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, MIT Press, Cambridge.

Hsiao, Cheng (2003) Analysis of Panel Data, Cambridge University Press

Baltagi, Badi H. (2011) Econometrics, Springer

Baltagi, Badi H. (2005) Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, John Wiley and sons

Recommended Courses to Cover Before this One

Summer School

  • Introduction to Regression Analysis
  • Advanced Topics in Applied Regression

Winter School

  • Introduction to Stata

Recommended Courses to Cover After this One

Summer School

  • Time series analysis

Winter School

  • Multilevel Regression Modelling
  • Time series analysis