To vote Eurosceptic or not to vote at all? Understanding the electoral behavior of Eurosceptic citizens in times of crisis

The European Union has been and still is going through troubled times, as economic hardship, bailout packages and austerity measures have not yet vanished from the agenda. The even more alarming observation, however, is the rise of a vivid continent-wide Euroscepticism that has become evident not only in opinion polls, but also in the 2014 European elections. Total voter turnout has decreased for the seventh time in a row and almost 30% of the parliament seats are now occupied by soft and hard Eurosceptic parties. More than ever before, the legitimacy and the further continuation of the EU integration process have been put into question by the constraining dissensus of its citizens. This paper investigates why some citizens choose to vote for Eurosceptic parties, while others abstain from voting to express their discontent with the current state of the integration process. Which forms of individual Euroscepticism lead to what kind of electoral behavior, be it active non-participation or voting for left- or right-wing Eurosceptic parties? And what role do contextual factors such as the severe economic and social conditions in several EU member states play? In order to answer these questions, we will use post-electoral survey data of the European Election Studies (EES) and apply multi-level models to predict the individual decision whether or not to vote and which party to vote for. By including several survey waves from different European elections, we also aim at identifying the impact of the Euro crisis for both kinds of Eurosceptic electoral behavior.