The Non-Proliferation Regime as a Driver for Non-Proliferation Decisions? A New Methodological Approach

The paper presents an innovative methodological approach to analyze non-proliferation decisions and the importance of the non-proliferation regime as normative factor After the “golden age of non-proliferation” in the beginning of the 1990th the non-proliferation regime is perceived to be in a crisis while nuclear proliferation still possesses a significant threat to global security. Although, the subject had already been explored by using various theoretical and methodological approaches. Nevertheless, with regard to nuclear decision-making two limitations remain. On the on hand, the respective findings regarding the importance of specific factors like norms, security or domestic aspects based on the specific paradigms are contrary, partial even conflicting even though employing the same cases. On the other hand, previous analyses mostly disregard the process how those decisions of going nuclear or abstaining are made within states and where and to what extend norms like the non-proliferation regime influenced them. Addressing those academic voids the paper presents an innovative methodological approach of qualitative research that elaborates the process of nuclear decisions within states by employing a combination of case-specific process tracing and analytical eclecticism. It elaborates the characteristics of the potentially causal factors and undertakes a process tracing analysis of the nuclear (non-)proliferation decisions with particular consideration of external affects especially the non-proliferation norms. This approach contributes to the profound characterization of the political phenomena non-/proliferation as well as to a critical look on the established research in this field. Therefore, the approach will close a research gap with its focus on the complex political process of nuclear decisions. The purpose of this multidimensional approach is neither to test existing causal explanations nor to create a new universal theory, rather to elaborate the specific aspect of external influencing on nuclear proliferation decisions to at best develop a middle-range theory. So in summary, the paper presents an innovative methodological approach that offer both a consistent further development of theoretical research in the field of nuclear proliferation as well as a practical impact to improve nonproliferation policies and strengthen the non-proliferation regime.