Yes Cymru: a Social Media-Facilitated Catalyst for Welsh Independence?

This paper examines the expansion of a nascent political movement, tracing its use of social media, notably Twitter, to generate engagement and mobilise a wider network by exploiting the dynamic inherent in the platform. By appropriating connective action, digital prefigurative participation (DPP) and exploiting the political opportunity structure (POS) of discontent, Yes Cymru has brought the fringe issue of Welsh Independence to the fore of public debate. Yes Cymru formally launched in 2016. Modelled on the Scottish ‘Yes’ campaign, to the extent of adopting near-identical iconography, it was given additional focus by the Brexit vote later that year, and another spike in engagement has followed the December 2019 UK general election. The wider (UK) political context has shifted considerably, with the movement attempting to mobilise the increasingly prevalent view that the tectonic plates of British politics are shifting to such an extent that previously unthinkable concepts now seem feasible. Its trajectory illustrates the different socio-political context in Wales, remaining considerably more internally diverse in terms of its broader politics than Scotland. Denis Balsom’s 1983 ‘three Wales model’ still has relevance for a country where support for independence has historically been closely linked to the politics of the Welsh language (spoken by around 20% of the population). Indeed, the 2019 general election confirmed the continuing relevance of Balsom’s model, with the electoral map still tracing its contours. Support for independence has historically been weak in Wales: less than 10%. However, that dynamic is shifting: over the past year, Yes Cymru has used Twitter and encrypted platforms to mobilise supporters in a series of marches across Wales. May 2019 saw the first ever formal march for Welsh independence, ‘All under one banner Cymru’ (modelled on the Scottish attempt to bring diverse groups together for a common cause), when 3000 marchers demonstrated in Cardiff. In July 2019, organisers claimed 10,000 attended a second march, in the Welsh-speaking town of Caernarfon. In January 2020 the organisation gained a considerable amount of media publicity for its social media push to get Yma o Hyd, a famous pro-independence song by Dafydd Iwan (dating to the early 1980s) to the top of the iTunes charts. Yes Cymru is attempting to exploit the POS of disaffection which characterises contemporary British politics. This work provides an opportunity to examine a nascent movement rooted in a much longer tradition of identity politics but seeking to mobilise social media and exploit wider POS’s. Yes Cymru is adopting what Mercea (2011) calls ‘DPP’ by attempting to build collective identity and mobilise individuals prior to on-the-ground events and exploit the wider POS of discontent (Meyer, 2004). The movement claimed a dramatic upward shift in support for independence since 2016, to 24% in poll conducted in 2019 (Fullfact, 2019) and 41% by Welsh broadcaster nation. Cymru. By combining theoretical lenses alongside analysing discourse by Yes Cymru and polling data, this work will provide an interdisciplinary lens into a nascent movement that has lacked previous academic attention in comparison with widely-researched Scottish independence debates.