Globalized Times Ask for Encompassing Welfare States? A Study of Job Insecurity and Social Policy Preferences in Mexico

Lately, the status quo of ever-increasing international market integration is being challenged by constantly louder voices that speak in favor of protectionism. However, the effects in changes of trade relationships on welfare systems and their support coalitions on the micro level in middle-income countries are understudied. In this article, I argue that macro-level occurrences in form of trade relationships increase individual economic insecurity which then translates into decreased demand for social policies. The complexity of the fragmented welfare state as well as a segmented labor market, and globalization winner-loser dynamics form part of the argument. Using original, representative survey data from two states of Mexico collected in November 2018, I test my argument with a priming experiment. The treatment group received an information prime on the consequences of a potential trade relation break-up between the U.S. and Mexico. I find support for the first link: worries about trade disruptions increase individual job insecurity. For the second link, I find reduced support for welfare policy fields when individuals worry about their job. Focusing on individuals who are particularly exposed to trade disruptions by working in the tradable sector corroborates the finding. This paper contributes to the globalization debate and supports the efficiency hypothesis. The results are important as middle-income countries are highly affected by globalization and more research is necessary to understand support coalitions concerning an expansion or reduction of the welfare state.