The Ibiza Scandal and the Dynamics of Public Opinion: Findings from the AUTNES Online Panel Study

The 2019 European elections in Austria were overshadowed by the publication of the so-called Ibiza video that sparked a major scandal making headlines worldwide. The footage showed Heinz-Christian Strache, the chairman of the FPÖ, describing to a young woman, supposedly the niece of a Russian oligarch, how to make use of a legal loophole to secretly channel bribes to the party and how to gain control over Austria's most-circulated newspaper. The revelations led to Strache's immediate resignation which triggered an early breakup of the governing ÖVP-FPÖ coalition that ultimately resulted in a snap election. The news coverage was dominated by intense discussions about the content of the tape as well as its dubious origins. In both the European and national elections that followed the FPÖ underperformed compared to early polls. The party, however, did not get wiped out electorally as some political observers had been expecting. Against this background, this paper examines how the Ibiza scandal affected the dynamics of public opinion in the short- and medium-term using data from the AUTNES Online Panel Study. The research design of the study is particularly suitable to assess the potential effects of the Ibiza scandal, and their durability, as the study combined a multi-wave panel design with a rolling component of daily interviews during the campaign period. In terms of mechanisms, we assess both potential demobilizing as well as persuasive effects of the Ibiza scandal. We also address the question of why—despite the revelations—a significant proportion of FPÖ supporters remained loyal to their party or even felt reinforced in their prior opinions. The results will demonstrate how the scandal affected voters in the short- and medium term. We discuss the implications of "Ibiza gate" for the study of scandals and election campaigns more broadly.