The Collapse of Mythical Institutions, Affective Tipping Points, and Nonlinear Political Dynamics

Studies concerning nonlinear political dynamics, such as regime change, focus on macro-level structural factors and political agency. Tipping points are pitched mainly at these levels, and scholars therefore devote less attention to meso-level factors, such as the collapse of state institutions, as drivers of such dynamics. This paper develops a verbal model to explain the nonlinear political dynamics that occur following the collapse or deliberate dissolution of a mythical institution. Such an institution enjoys a reputation for power and influence among the public based on widespread and persistent stereotypical beliefs that embody the ideals of high performance and long-term stability and on an appeal to peoples’ emotions. The argument advanced here is that nonlinear political dynamics may occur when the collapse or the deliberate dissolution of a mythical institution generates high levels of anxiety. When the level reaches an affective tipping point, citizens begin to update their evaluations and consider new information. This may lead to behavioral convergence (e.g., mass emigration, mass violence), which is in turn accelerated by public perceptions concerning the lack of an adequate response by the relevant authority, thus highlighting the irreversibility of the collapse/dissolution. This process is illustrated herein by examining the collapse of East Germany’s emigration restrictions system in September 1989 and the deliberate abolition of the tsarist police by the Russian Provisional Government following the February Revolution in 1917. These illustrations support the argument that mythical institutions reflect shared socio-psychological vulnerabilities at the mass-level and may therefore be the proverbial canary in the coal mine.