Intergroup threat and affective polarization in a multiparty system

What explains conflict between various groups in society and polarization among voters? Much of the existing literature focusing on mass political polarization in modern democracies originates in studies of the US, where studies have shown that while ideological separation has grown, these partisan groups increasingly reflect social identity divisions rather than ideological disagreements, resulting in so called affective polarization. We focus on measuring and explaining such polarization in a multiparty context. Drawing on intergroup threat theory, we hypothesize that individuals who feel that their group is threatened show stronger bias against outgroups. We analyze the influence of perceived threat on affective polarization using questions about traits and social distancing drawing on a large-scale representative survey in Sweden. We show that individual-level affective polarization is driven by perceived intergroup threats among the voters, and that ideological position moderates the effect of perceived threats.