Globalization, automation and demand for alternative designs of welfare compensation: a survey experiment in 5 EU countries, the UK, Japan and the US

Globalization and technological change are arguably the most prominent sources of structural labour market changes in advanced industrialized economies. Both processes threaten the jobs and livelihoods of many workers and have induced an ever-increasing job-polarization, thereby making them two of the most important challenges for social policymakers. However, these processes affect different people in different ways, hereby generating diverse demand for social protection. In this paper, we deploy two novel survey experiments among a representative sample of respondents from 8 countries (5 EU countries, Japan, the UK and the US). Respondents are confronted with policy packages varying across numerous specific dimensions, such as taxation, type of benefits, balance between monetary benefits and education, and presence of additional measures. The two survey experiments (each repeated three times) are largely similar, but they are introduced by a clear framing linking the policy to globalization and automation respectively. Our results suggest that while policy content is important in causally determining respondents preferences for social protection, the origin of the shock- globalization or automation- does not lead to significantly differences preferences. However, individual - level factors, such as personal exposure to risks deriving from automation and trade, do affect the preferred policy outcomes. Authors: Francesco Nicoli, Stefano Sacchi, Brian Burgoon, Marius Busemeyer